Geopolitical Risks and Economic Uncertainties: Insights from #RISK Digital North America

Early Days, But Key Trends Emerge

The conversation acknowledged the early days of the new US administration but highlighted several emerging trends. Christopher Mason pointed out the unprecedented speed and scale of executive orders, noting their “biting tone” as a potential indicator of a more aggressive policy approach. He suggested that while the initial flurry might be the new administration speaking to its base, the real impact of these orders remains to be seen.

There was also discussion on the controversial ‘federal buyout’ or ‘deferred resignation’ offer sent to over 2 million federal employees. They analysed how this compared to the way Elon Musk handled staff reductions at Twitter and what this could mean for federal employees.

China, TikTok, and National Security

The discussion delved into the complex relationship with China, particularly through the lens of the recent TikTok ban and subsequent reversal. Christopher Mason, quoting Bill Maher, highlighted the political win for Trump in getting TikTok, seen as a threat, removed just as he came into office, winning favour with younger generations. However, the underlying national security concerns remain and will need to be addressed.

They also touched on the impact of Chinese-based companies on US markets, as demonstrated by recent market volatility attributed to actions by Deep Seek AI.

Opposition and Political Landscape

Christopher Mason and  Nick James discussed the fragmented nature of the opposition to the current administration. While there’s been some pushback through the courts and public interest organizations, many are still scrambling to react to the “shock and awe” tactics of the administration. Christopher Mason suggested the treatment of the federal workforce could be a source of future opposition.

The upcoming 2026 midterm elections were also identified as a crucial factor, with both parties needing to reassess their strategies.

International Relations and the EU

The conversation touched upon the potential for strained relations with the EU, particularly regarding trade and perceived “taxation” through fines on US tech companies. The appointment of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and his initial focus (or lack thereof) on European relations was seen as a telling sign. However, strong business ties between the US and Europe were acknowledged as a potential mitigating factor.

The ongoing conflict with Russia was highlighted as a wildcard that could significantly impact US-EU relations.

Optimism Amidst Uncertainty

Despite the challenges, Christopher Mason expressed cautious optimism, suggesting that “the forces of good will come through” even amid significant changes. He emphasized the importance of monitoring not just official policy pronouncements but also the tone and messaging, which can offer clues to future actions.

Key Takeaways:

• The new US administration’s actions are happening at an unprecedented pace and scale, creating significant uncertainty.
• The TikTok situation reveals a complex interplay of national security, economic interests, and political maneuvering in US-China relations.
• Opposition to the administration is present but fragmented, with potential focal points emerging in the courts, public interest groups, and the federal workforce.
• US-EU relations may face strain, particularly regarding trade and tech regulation, but strong business ties could provide a buffer.
• The situation remains fluid, and careful monitoring of both official policies and underlying messaging is crucial.